Thursday, September 11, 2008

The War Which Will Help McCain Win
Yuri Baranchik, Strategic Culture Foundation

Georgia has done a great job as the proving ground during the five-day war. With the help of this war, those who are promoting the Republican nominee in the US presidential race have found out all they needed to know.

It was a part of Washington's plan that Russia would respond resolutely to the US-prepared Georgian incursion into South Ossetia. As a result of Russia's repelling the aggression, the US Administration obtained the information it needed to analyze the consequences of future armed conflicts in the post-Soviet space and Senator J. McCain's chances to become the next US President got a real boost. Besides, Washington had the opportunity to probe into the positions of Europe (obviously, the EU would not follow the US in the case of serious tensions with Russia) and China (which would rather not intervene).

In the US, practically all the benefits from the situation which emerged due to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia were drawn by the Republicans, as the evolution of McCain's rating clearly shows. McCain was 7% behind his rival B. Obama by the early August but the gap began to shrink when the conflict in the Caucasus broke out, and by August 23 both presidential hopefuls had 47%. The process stopped at this point, though, as the war ended. Subsequently, Obama began to lead again – now he has 50% vs McCain's 42%.

In other words, the conflict in the Caucasus was provoked by the Republicans in the hope to gain advantages in the presidential campaign. The five-day war triggered exactly the electoral reaction they expected – it appeared at the moment that the US needed a President who would make a better military commander, and Vietnam-war veteran McCain seemed better fit for the role than his relatively young rival. The logic behind the voting on November 4, 2008 became completely obvious.

Thus, it takes a war for McCain to win. It takes more than just a small war which only made it possible for him to catch up with Obama. It has to be a serious one with an impressive death toll, and then the triumph of the Republican hawk on November 4 would be guaranteed. A war between the US and Iran would serve the purpose.

For the Republican elite which is ready to unleash a war with Iran for the sake of McCain's victory, what is at stake is not one but three presidential terms. Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin will have good starting positions in the 2014 presidential race. Republican politicians no longer worry about oil prices as the margin from the domestic sales of imported oil is theirs anyhow, and the financial crisis in the US simply cannot be prevented, so the main question at the moment is who is going to be at the helm during the crisis to reap the benefits stemming from the redistribution of the global and US domestic markets.

What have the Republicans already gained thanks to the military experiment in the Caucasus?

First, it transpired that Russia will react harshly to military expansion attempts in the post-Soviet space. Confronting a serious enemy in international politics is a situation generally advantageous from the Republican standpoint.

Secondly, it became clear that the EU as a whole is not a dependable partner for the US and the US must rely on bilateral ties with some of the EU countries (Great Britain, Poland).

Thirdly, China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization would easily abandon Russia and opt for non-intervention.

Fourthly, a small country like Georgia cannot present a sufficiently big problem to paralyze Russia. The task would take involving Russia in two conflicts at once, hence the role of Ukraine. Making Ukraine a part of the “arrangement' would also be a way of punishing the defiant Europe by destabilizing its energy supply routes.

Currently there seems to be an informational lull, but the impression is perfunctory. A major war and the transfer of control from Bush to McCain in the situation of a massive armed conflict are of vital importance for the forces which advance McCain and hope to go on running the US for the next 12 years.

In this light, the likely scenario for the future is as follows:

New conflicts in the post-Soviet space will be organized with the help of the already outgoing US puppets Saakashvili and Yushchenko. The process will probably begin in Ukraine. Yushchenko will resort to the use of force against his opponents to amass power in his hands. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is already targeted: she is under practically undisguised surveillance and will be interrogated by the prosecutor on September 11. The interrogation is likely to be followed by arrest, now or later. After it, Yushchenko will issue a decree introducing the presidential rule “until the situation normalizes”. The regime will be marked by a witch-hunting campaign with numerous provocations against politicians – and not only politicians – known for pro-Russian leanings. In case this would not be enough, provocations targeting Russian warships docked in Sevastopol and their personnel should be expected.

Since there are at least three influential political clans in Ukraine and the country is already being torn apart by President Yushchenko's irresponsible politics, by the early October a number of local conflicts will quickly evolve into a civil war (unless by that time Yushchenko gets arrested for treason instead). The result will be the disintegration of Ukraine.

This time, Russia will try to avoid getting directly involved in Ukraine's domestic conflict and limit its efforts to implicitly supporting pro-Russian forces in the Ukrainian elite as well as in the country's eastern regions and in the Crimea.

In case the situation in Ukraine remains under control, Russia is going to have a much greater potential to influence the international situation when the US strikes Iran. On the other hand, if the temperature of the conflict gets high and it spills beyond Ukraine's borders, Russia will have to fight for its interests as it did in the Caucasus.

Tentatively, Moscow will decide what to do about Ukraine by mid-October.

Following the developments, Saakashvil's thugs rearmed with the US assistance will get back into play after some rest in late October.

The US stock market will see a partial drop as the security of the energy transit routes from Russia to Europe will be affected and the global fuel prices will soar. The US population will panic and the neocons will frighten it further by pictures of “the global chaos” until the no-return point is reached.

By that time Russia will be confronted by a total information war.

In late October Cheney's political group will organize a provocation against the US of proportions comparable to those of September 11. The death toll will be high and Iran will be blamed. Several days prior to the November 4 elections, President Bush will declare another crusade in the name of democracy which will in practice mean a “pre-emptive” war against Iran.

Under the circumstances McCain will be a natural choice in the US as the leader capable of fighting the global terrorism and the rogue countries all the way to the logical completion.

Campaigning on the day of the elections may be prohibited, but McCain will do well without it. Media reports from conflict zones in Georgia, Ukraine, and Iran will be the background of the elections on November 4. The public will see Eurasia in flames and ask for a strong-handed US politics as the way to cope with the global chaos.

Early morning on November 5, McCain will declare himself as the winner determined to carry the light of democracy all over the world.



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